Sear prices stalling/falling?? - Page 11

View Poll Results: Will sear prices rise above 2016 prices, remain flat, or reduce in price for 2017?

Voters
112. This poll is closed
  • Reduce to $20's

    35 31.25%
  • Exceed the $30k price of 2016

    40 35.71%
  • Remain flat/neutral

    37 33.04%
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Thread: Sear prices stalling/falling??

  1. #101
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beowulf View Post
    There has to be a practical limit on the increase, though, I would think. At some point (not that we are near it yet, I don't believe), its going to be cheaper to get an 07/02, even with ITAR thrown in, and pay for it for the rest of your life to keep your post samples instead of paying for a transferable. Especially, if you form a corporation with a couple of buddies and split the cost.

    I just ran the numbers and looking at the FFL cost, the SOT 02 cost, and ITAR, you are looking at about $89k over 30 years (roughly $3k a year). Split that with a few friends and you each and "build" a full auto registered post sample trigger pack and an M16 (about $400 to get both of them, if that) and you are looking at less than the cost of an HK sear to have 2 machine guns, with that cost spread out over 30 years.

    Now, of course, the longer you live the more expensive it gets, but then again, the more machine gun post samples you make, the cheaper it gets per gun.

    Still, there is more hassle to it than that, of course, having to maintain a business during that time, keeping records and business hours. But, as costs sky rocket for transferables, I imagine it becomes a lot more palatable.
    That's a real great plan in theory, and no doubt that some are doing it, but it's also illegal. You might want to check out the NFA handbook. Specifically 5.2.6




    5.2.6 Collectors acquiring NFA firearms for their personal collections by acquiring dealers’ licenses and paying NFA special tax. Some NFA firearms collectors, who are not engaged in any firearms business, have been known to acquire a GCA license to deal in firearms and pay the NFA special tax to acquire NFA firearms for their personal firearms collections. They do so for a number of reasons: (1) to acquire firearms from nonlicensees residing out-of-state; (2) to circumvent requirements imposed on individuals to provide their fingerprints and photographs in order to receive NFA firearms and law enforcement certifications authorizing their receipt of such firearms; and (3) to avoid NFA transfer tax on firearms they receive from FFLs/SOTs.
    Warning: These transactions violate the law and can only lead to trouble for the collector. In these instances, the collector has committed Federal felonies by falsely stating on a license application and special tax return that the collector intends to conduct a firearms business. Any NFA firearms received tax free by the collector are subject to transfer tax and the collector’s receipt of the firearms tax free violated the NFA. As held in ATF Ruling 76-22, these transfers are unlawful and the firearms received are subject to seizure and forfeiture.

  2. #102
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    Quote Originally Posted by MP5Na3 View Post
    Maybe, but it is at $29,500 now (down a second time) and still no takers. So with the poll options, it is now in the 20's. High 20's no doubt, but first one I have seen in a long long time under 30, and, still available.
    We're talking long term here, and not in dog years. A sale under $30k doesn't establish a new long term trend. An entire year of sales under $30k does not establish a new long term trend. In equity markets, a selloff of 20% is considered bear market territory, yet we've only seen a haircut of perhaps 10% from the peek. But even a deep selloff doesn't constitute a new long term trend. Look at the crash '87, a blip, and a brief buying opportunity in hindsight:

    The financial meltdown of 2008 may have felt like the end of the world, but it didn't create a new long term trend, it was yet another brief buying opportunity.



    Quote Originally Posted by SudS View Post
    One thing to remember, from what I recently read, we are in the second longest bull market Wall Street has ever seen (with the longest just a few months longer than the current). The economy is sure to influence people's expenditures for big ticket items, both up and down. I say sear prices for 2017 will follow the economy.
    The quantitative easing x infinity policy definitely gave the economy the perma-spiked punch bowl that it needed to party into overtime, and since the Fed will have to keep rates near zero indefinitely (or until its time to fight serious inflation), we could certainly see irrational exuberance continue into record overtime, but the party will have to take a break eventually. Can you imagine the hangover after a binge like this one? If only we knew when so that we could load up on calls of leveraged x3 inverse ETFs.

    Regardless, even at the peak of a recession, sear prices have remained remarkably resilient/immune to any notable price corrections. But we’ve had decades of relative political and economic stability with a heavy dose of long term low interest rates from most of the world’s central banks, which I must admit, has provided the ideal environment for bubble mania to flourish. We now have a bubble in the auto market, where anyone can get a loan, income has no bearing, and any credit score qualifies. Sound familiar? It happened with housing, now we have subprime auto sales in overdrive. Since we don't really make anything anymore, we have a debt based economy, and now that Americans are burdened with housing, auto, student loan, and credit card debit, it makes me wonder how much remaining credit we have to keep fueling this artificial economy.

    With that said, we can agree that machine guns are a luxury asset, meaning that collectors will let these go if forced to choose between these prized heirlooms versus feeding their family and heating their home. Though it would likely require something along the lines of a fiat reserve currency crash of the USD or WWIII before we are presented with such a grand buying opportunity.
    Last edited by Neo-Geo; 03-28-2017 at 03:41 AM.
    Hidden Content Hidden Content Hidden Content . Hidden Content 7/14/2016.
    Check cleared 7/18/2016. Approved 6/16/2017. Stamps delivered 7/6/2017.

  3. #103
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    The more money I make the more sears cost. I could probably swing one now at 2009 prices, but not then.

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  5. #104
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dvdeick View Post
    That's a real great plan in theory, and no doubt that some are doing it, but it's also illegal. You might want to check out the NFA handbook. Specifically 5.2.6




    5.2.6 Collectors acquiring NFA firearms for their personal collections by acquiring dealers’ licenses and paying NFA special tax. Some NFA firearms collectors, who are not engaged in any firearms business, have been known to acquire a GCA license to deal in firearms and pay the NFA special tax to acquire NFA firearms for their personal firearms collections. They do so for a number of reasons: (1) to acquire firearms from nonlicensees residing out-of-state; (2) to circumvent requirements imposed on individuals to provide their fingerprints and photographs in order to receive NFA firearms and law enforcement certifications authorizing their receipt of such firearms; and (3) to avoid NFA transfer tax on firearms they receive from FFLs/SOTs.
    Warning: These transactions violate the law and can only lead to trouble for the collector. In these instances, the collector has committed Federal felonies by falsely stating on a license application and special tax return that the collector intends to conduct a firearms business. Any NFA firearms received tax free by the collector are subject to transfer tax and the collector’s receipt of the firearms tax free violated the NFA. As held in ATF Ruling 76-22, these transfers are unlawful and the firearms received are subject to seizure and forfeiture.
    Ah, but that's the rub. How exactly do they prove that? Put your shingle out, do transfers for internet purchases, put some Class III items you make out for sale and boom, you are in business. The ATF can't require you to be a successful business, just in business.

  6. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by Neo-Geo View Post

    With that said, we can agree that machine guns are a luxury asset, meaning that collectors will let these go if forced to choose between these prized heirlooms versus feeding their family and heating their home. Though it would likely require something along the lines of a fiat reserve currency crash of the USD or WWIII before we are presented with such a grand buying opportunity.

    Or the sear hosts are banned outright along with the magazines.


    7n6
    Last edited by 7n6; 03-28-2017 at 07:03 AM.

  7. #106
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beowulf View Post
    Ah, but that's the rub. How exactly do they prove that? Put your shingle out, do transfers for internet purchases, put some Class III items you make out for sale and boom, you are in business. The ATF can't require you to be a successful business, just in business.
    Do YOU want to be the one they take to court over it though? Not being able to prove it doesn't necessarily stop them from trying.

  8. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Klaustrophobia View Post
    Do YOU want to be the one they take to court over it though? Not being able to prove it doesn't necessarily stop them from trying.
    Trust me, I wouldn't be the first by far. I'd imagine there is a pretty large number of 07/02s that are generating well below the 500k revenue threshold on their SOT tax break. Just like the kitchen table FFLs, there are plenty of garage shop SOTs.

  9. #108
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    Price inflation is not across the board. In recent times, the quantitative easing has favored those with financial assets. So the things that people with financial assets have inflated. G5 jets. Diamonds. Luxury property. And yes, sears. What has not inflated at the same rate, or if at all, are common things like TV's, low end cars, shoes.

    I bought a sports car in very late 1987 for a very good price. Why? Because of Black Monday in Oct. The guy that owned it got crushed. That day is coming again. And when it does, the precious things that affluent people have been chasing for the last 10 years will tank. Including sears. The only question is whether to buy now or try to cherry pick when the financial asset bubble bursts. If I could help you on that, I would not have go to work.

  10. #109
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tug View Post
    Price inflation is not across the board. In recent times, the quantitative easing has favored those with financial assets. So the things that people with financial assets have inflated. G5 jets. Diamonds. Luxury property. And yes, sears. What has not inflated at the same rate, or if at all, are common things like TV's, low end cars, shoes.

    I bought a sports car in very late 1987 for a very good price. Why? Because of Black Monday in Oct. The guy that owned it got crushed. That day is coming again. And when it does, the precious things that affluent people have been chasing for the last 10 years will tank. Including sears. The only question is whether to buy now or try to cherry pick when the financial asset bubble bursts. If I could help you on that, I would not have go to work.
    I tend to agree with you on this as well. I relate the sears/mg inflation to the last housing bubble in south Florida. Houses bringing $700K, $800K,$1.1 etc.,....and with the stroke of a pen, their values dropped {or corrected} back to $200K, $250K, and $300k. And if you were sitting on a $500k house....you were stuck with it, much like those that recently bought in, in the $25K-$35K sear/mg price. Those same people were in such a state of denial, that they had their own zip code.
    A redneck's famous last words...."Hey everybody, watch this!"

  11. #110
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    And to add to ^^^ point, another sear $27k....

    http://www.gunbroker.com/item/628556424

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