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Discussion Starter #1
I've been craving a p7 for some reason for quite a while. I initially thought of a PSP but it's been a year since I looked at them and back then it seemed they could be had for 550 but now it seems that price has gone up quite a bit. Local shop has a m8 for 1200$ with 4mags, I havent looked at it yet and have no info.

What do you think the price trend of psp and m8's will be like over the next 5 years?

Should I make sure any gun I buy has matching serials? How do I get a good idea of how worn it is regarding rounds fired?
 

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I guess it depends on the economy's health and demand for the P7 series in the near future. Obviously, there won't be any more supply of the M8 or M13 and I don't think you'll see any more trade-in P7's show up, either. So many people bought up the P7's when the trade-ins last flooded the market (2009-2010) that demand's been iffy on them right now. You'll notice that while they do go for more these days ($100-$150 more on average), sellers that ask for higher than $800 or so usually can't sell them unless it's in almost-new condition or includes lots of accessories. The M8 and M13 prices have stayed more or less stable the last year or so and I doubt they'll be going much higher. The prices on them are so high now that they're near the ceiling of what the market will support. Kinda like the precious metals market.
 

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They'll never be less expensive than they are now. Here's my latest track. I think there's plenty of room for appreciation in value.

Heckler & Koch P7 M8: Pistol in 9 mm 4.13 in Bbl. Bluebook of Gun Values (33nd Edition) indicates between $975 in 95% condition and $1500 in 100% condition for this gun. I have 262 recorded prices for this model gun from $475 to $2000 over a period of 8 Yrs 7 Mos ending April 25, 2012. The average price as of that date was $1276. No refurbs, no refinishes, regular sights. Adjusted to two magazines. All represented as 95% or better. No distinction for import location or engineering revision, if any, no special editions, no distinctions for box, papers, tools. Current or last MSRP is $1515. Based on "normalizing" this data, the high range could be anywhere between $1700 and $1900. Personally, I'd go for one that was perhaps less collectable so I wouldn't feel guilty shooting it.

You can see the BBGV is pretty close but only to the average value range. The Average Price trend is just under $1500 as of April 2012. Better examples would command higher prices, especially with box, papers, tools, and so on. For some unknown reason, Excel wouldn't let me use one-month intervals on the date axis. However, the data are there by month. There seem to be months where three or four show up in sampled months, so there are still some out there, I suspect, with owners yielding to the temptation to sell what they have for more than they paid.

 

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Discussion Starter #4 (Edited)
I was hoping you'd show up...

The 1200$ one sold before I could get a good look at it.
The hardest part seems to be finding one with all the accessories here. There's another local for 1000 but all it comes with is 2 mags and some wear as seen below.

I'm just amazed how little PSPs there are, last year the market seemed to be swimming in them. I guess I messed up then.
 

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I've been craving a p7 for some reason for quite a while. I initially thought of a PSP but it's been a year since I looked at them and back then it seemed they could be had for 550 but now it seems that price has gone up quite a bit. Local shop has a m8 for 1200$ with 4mags, I havent looked at it yet and have no info.

What do you think the price trend of psp and m8's will be like over the next 5 years?

Should I make sure any gun I buy has matching serials? How do I get a good idea of how worn it is regarding rounds fired?
As stated before, with the series no longer in production, what we have is it. Unlike other discontinued models from HK or other manufacturers, the P7 series is very popular and well respected. So, without question, prices will continue to climb. Sure you will still be able to find decent prices occassionally, but many of those will either be from people needing quick cash for some life crisis or on models that have clearly been "rode hard and put away wet." The new/unfired examples or LNIB with all the original kit ones will climb. Some of the even more limited or rare models will also continue to cllimb.
As for what to look for...wear on the finish, usually holster wear at the end of the reciever or on the grip face, from excessive cocking. Really obvious though and often not shown in listings, you need to examine the gas piston. You can easily tell whether or not a pistol is unfired or not or excessively fired by the condition of the piston.
My advice is that if you want one, simply to collect as an investment, save your money, be patient and buy the best new/unfired model you can get. Make sure it has all of the original kit though.
 

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The photo link doesn't work and it requires membership. I'd say $1000 for a decent P7M8 was worth buying even if you flip it right away.
 
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