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I have'nt seen a sear posted in a long time, now there has been 3 in 48 hours...all at "reasonable" (I know thats a relative term) prices. What gives?
 

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Can't recall who, but someone a couple of weeks ago posted that if 50 people subscribed to purchaseing a sear, he would sell them at $12,500 each if I remember correctly. I think it was going to be open for a month for 50 people to subscribe. If 50 didn't then the offer would be withdrawn. The firm taking the offers was not the one who owned the sears, they were doing it for someone else who wanted to remain in the background and unidentified.
 

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maybe the current crop of sears are from someone who has an inside line on if those 50 sold or not.

a flood of 50 sears on the market may (hopefully) bring the price down a bit.
 

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Maybe because of the upcoming '08 elections. There has been talk, mostly back-room what-ifing, about the Dems wanting to ban the transfer of all machine guns. While they may not "come and get 'em," they could ban the transfer of MG and sears just like MGs in general were banned from private ownership if they were made after May 19, 1986 (I still am slightly pissed at President Reagan for signing that bit of legislation).
IF the Dems got that through then all those $20K MGs would become totally worthless and the owner would not even be able to leave them to their heirs. Keep them until you die or don't want them any more and then they must be turned over to the government. How's that for a "good investment."
Like I said, I've heard rumblings of this rumor in one form or another for years but have never heard anything other than rumors, but sometimes where there is smoke there is fire. And IF a Dem gets the White House AND they maintain control of the House and Senate...oh, Lord help us. :(
 

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Atta' Boy!!
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Due to the present state of our economy, I predict that there has been a top-off of the market for the present and some investors may be beginning to sell off. War's still on, election coming up, possible recession on the horizion, etc. The price on those 50 sears may drop in the next couple of years. I can't think of any commodity that has an almost absolute fixed number of investments existing year to year (some registered auto sears could be lost, stolen, etc. but I assume most are fairly secure) where we could expect the value to continue to appreciate. From an economic standpoint, why would they? I would like a board economist to explain why the value would even jump from 5K to present values over a decade. I've heard theories but none I will buy into. Fixed supply versus demand to a point, then extreme price/sensibility slows the market, when only a small percentage of the population will have "more dollars than sense." Any thoughts?
God Bless,
Pyro Mike
 

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I think it has to do with the price of ammo. When the bullets in the mag cost more than the mag, well, semi auto is one thing but full auto is very costly. I believe most people are looking at the sort term, ie., "lets get rid of my sear because it costs too much to shoot", or even the "lets sell my ammo to make a profit". If we get a Socialist agenda in 08, then those people will be moaning about thier sold sears and ammo. The upside is the level-headed people taking advantage of the situation.
 

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Another issue is the if the Supreme Court rules on the 2nd ammendment out of the D.C. handgun ban case. If we get the supremes wiping lots of gun legislation off the table then maybe new MGs are possible. I am not holding my breath, but it is an issue for folks who have 10 to 100s of K in sears/MGs.
 

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Maybe it has something to do with all of the foreclosures across America hurting the economy?
This is the first thing I thought of. If you read some of the financial articles
about the number of foreclosures and the ramifications it may very well be that people are trying to save their homes and properties.
 

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maybe the current crop of sears are from someone who has an inside line on if those 50 sold or not.

a flood of 50 sears on the market may (hopefully) bring the price down a bit.
No, they have not been sold yet. I know, because one of them has my name on it. They were being sold at $12,500 each. I suppose somebody with a ton of cash lying around might buy 10 of them and try to flip them for $13,500 each or something, but that's not THAT much cheaper than what they've been going for lately.

My vote is that a bunch of people's ARM's or interest only loans have come due, and they're in a cash crunch.
 

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I seriouly doubt anyone could find 50 buyers to purchase 50 sears with no trigger pack for $12500.00
They would have to be priced around $9,000.00 to $10500.00 to move all of those in that short of a time period.

GPSIG: There will never be new machine guns for civilians period & the worst case senario is that Hillary removes all firearms & machine guns which is possible but they better hire the Millitary to do it.
 

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I seriouly doubt anyone could find 50 buyers to purchase 50 sears with no trigger pack for $12500.00
They would have to be priced around $9,000.00 to $10500.00 to move all of those in that short of a time period.

GPSIG: There will never be new machine guns for civilians period & the worst case senario is that Hillary removes all firearms & machine guns which is possible but they better hire the Millitary to do it.
I don't know about not being able to sell 50 in a few months. In addition to the one I wanted, I know of 4 others that were spoken for by 2 other people, and that was by about the 2nd day the offer went up.
 

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GPSIG: There will never be new machine guns for civilians period & the worst case senario is that Hillary removes all firearms & machine guns which is possible but they better hire the Millitary to do it.
If they're smart they'd hire someone else's military to do it. I doubt our boys-in-green would turn on us that badly, nor would they want to get shot one by one working for dabitch. And they would.
 

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I don't know about not being able to sell 50 in a few months. In addition to the one I wanted, I know of 4 others that were spoken for by 2 other people, and that was by about the 2nd day the offer went up.
Call it 5 :350: and they are in G3 SEF packs according to the Sturm ad and an email I received from the broker. He also said that over 20 had already been spoken for as of 2 weeks ago.

I've considered the possibilities for the future of transferrable MGs and personally, the 2 most likely worst case scenarios for buying/owning an MG in my opinion are:
#1 Transfer is frozen
#2 New mfgr civilian MGs are allowed again
Number 1 would suck especially for those with BIG $$$$ invested already, but ultimately, you still end up being one of the relatively few with a machine gun for life so if you don't mind losing the investment aspect it really becomes a moot point as you still get to be one of the cool kids till you die. Number 2 IMHO would almost be worse simply due to having basically tossed money down the tube on a 20 year old "rigged" part when it would theoretically be possible to do a full RR conversion with all genuine factory parts and still come out roughly $10k ahead.
 

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A fixed supply of a desirable item will always appreciate in value IF the desire for that item remains in place. While that is a simplistic statement, there are two analogies to look at.

In the case of fully transferable machine guns, there are something like 180,000 of them (I forget the exact number I was quoted by the NFA Branch). That number will never go up. It cannot, by law (save for "findings" that can be unquestionably proven to have been made prior...). There has always been an increasing number of people who would like to own said desirable product. Ergo, the price continues to rise. The only way for the demand to be abated is by the application of an external force. An example of that force would be new legislation. If that legislation adversely effects the ownership of the desirable item, then the price will drop.

Another example would be the stock market. There are a finite number of Berkshire Hathaway shares (BRK-A). It's currently trading at about $119,000 per share! That's up quite a bit from around $60,000 in January of 2003. Will it continue to rise? Probably. Not a lot of shares available and performance has always been pretty darn good. Could it go down? Sure. Bad business decisions, legislation, etc.

This is not complicated. It's just a matter of timing!
 

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Thanks Straightgrain- Now for my own information, please further discuss two areas:
Where can you document that the demand for NFA weapons is always increasing? I would assume that the rough percentage of gun enthusiasts is relatively stable in America, gain some and lose some each year. We're going to start to lose a lot of the baby boomers in the upcoming decades. Is the growth of the segment of the population who can afford one always increasing?
The stock market anology- I don't think it relates well. The numbers of shares are not fixed, companies can split shares, buy them back, buy new assetts and redistribute, etc. Buffett/BH can buy, sell assetts within the "product" to increase the value, change the nature of how the "product" does business, a whole lot of variables. I can't really do too much to increase the value of my sear or the market.
 

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Call it 5 :350: and they are in G3 SEF packs according to the Sturm ad and an email I received from the broker. He also said that over 20 had already been spoken for as of 2 weeks ago.

I've considered the possibilities for the future of transferrable MGs and personally, the 2 most likely worst case scenarios for buying/owning an MG in my opinion are:
#1 Transfer is frozen
#2 New mfgr civilian MGs are allowed again
Number 1 would suck especially for those with BIG $$$$ invested already, but ultimately, you still end up being one of the relatively few with a machine gun for life so if you don't mind losing the investment aspect it really becomes a moot point as you still get to be one of the cool kids till you die. Number 2 IMHO would almost be worse simply due to having basically tossed money down the tube on a 20 year old "rigged" part when it would theoretically be possible to do a full RR conversion with all genuine factory parts and still come out roughly $10k ahead.
This is ironic on several levels - first that the two worst case scenarios are opposite conditions. The second is that while either of them would be the worst case for someone who already has a bunch of cash tied up in them, #2 would be the best case for anyone that doesn't yet have any. And since I do, let's hear it for the status quo! Hip hip, hooray! But I don't think they'll stop transfer. There simply aren't any big news-worthy crimes committed with registered NFA weapons, and I'd think it does still generate quite a large tax revenue. It's a lot like cigarettes - they'll sue them, tell everyone how bad they are, ban them from public places and (in some areas) even from your own car or home, but I can't see them EVER completely banning them - it would cost the government billions. In 2005, the feds raked in $7+ billion, and states took in $13 billion. I have no idea how many MG transfers there are every year, but at $200 each, it could still be a significant amount of money.
 

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Where can you document that the demand for NFA weapons is always increasing?
Supply is fixed (perfectly inelastic), and therefore the only explanation for increased market price is a shift in the demand curve to the right (increased demand).

Here is a graph that shows fixed supply, and what happens with a decrease in demand.



The opposite happens when demand increases... I couldn't quickly find a sample graph showing the increase in demand... only a decrease
 
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